At present, the situation of chemical fiber weaving end is like the skyrocketing market after October last year. The crazy market at that time was fleeting in the first quarter. The high drop of the throwing has so far left the textile bosses with a lingering fear: Will this sudden market copy be copied? After the market last October?
Since the second half of the year, the textile industry chain has been hot!
Since the second half of this year, the textile industry chain has shown a hot scene.
Chemical fiber raw materials: Production companies have raised their prices. Many factory products have risen twice or three times a day, and even have the phenomenon of reluctant sales.
Weaving printing and dyeing end: the sales of conventional fabric grey cloths are over, the price increase is more than 30%, and the delivery period of printing and dyeing products is greatly extended;
Terminal clothing enterprises: demand is strong, and the looting scenes that occur due to shortage of supply sometimes occur.
The market is turning sharply? Not very likely!
Recently, Xiao Bian also received questions from the raw materials industry. The market is so hot. From raw materials to fabrics to terminal clothing, it is said that there is no goods. In the end, where did the goods go? Will this sudden market reproduce the market after October last year? Xiao Bian believes that there will be no ups and downs in the first quarter, for the following reasons:
1. The same point: the clear inventory movement in October last year laid the foundation for a good market sentiment
From our monitoring of the inventory index of weaving enterprises in Shengze area, the state of high stocks began to improve from October 2016, and then the market has maintained a low state of normal stocks. Why is October a watershed in the change of weaving enterprise inventory? Due to the tight supply and demand caused by the suspension of production before and after the G20 summit, coupled with the unusual popularity of the double eleven, double twelve and foreign Christmas season last year, the inventory of the previous backlog was cleared.
Coupled with the reshuffle of the weaving market in recent years, the market has been doing the action of de-capacity, and the market supply and demand has begun to slowly balance the demand blowout phenomenon caused by sudden factors. It can be said that the inventory movement in October last year laid the foundation for a good market sentiment.
2. Differences: Sustainability of emergencies, market supply and demand are irreversible
The reason for the emptying of the weaving enterprise inventory was introduced above. The most important point is that the G20 factor at that time led to the long-term large-scale shutdown of the industrial chain. Some of the market demand was overdrawn in the early stage, and after the end of the G20, the industrial chain was rapidly Recovery, coupled with a lot of speculation in the middle, led to the late production situation is not effectively transmitted in the industry chain, so the market showed a certain correction in the first quarter.
However, after the second quarter, environmental protection continued to be in a state of high pressure, especially in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. For the elimination of water jet loom, the elimination in three years can be said to be gone forever, directly increasing the contradiction between supply and demand in the later period, and the benign state of the market in the later period has been Continue to the present day.
Out of stock, out of stock, out of stock, where did the goods go?
The market is so hot that everything from raw materials to fabrics to terminal clothing is said to be out of stock. Where did the goods go?
1. The market sentiment returned, and the demand of the textile industry chain was smoothly transmitted.
Since 2012, after the market has ushered in a trough, this cycle has been gradually lengthened. After five years, that is, in October last year, the market has finally improved. After the second half of this year, the market sentiment increased significantly.
Economic indicators are an important basis for judging whether the market is improving. As one of the largest textile industry clusters in the country, Shengze. According to statistics, from January to August this year, the total production value of Shengze Town was 24.794 billion yuan, up 8.00% year-on-year. Public finance revenue was 5.40 billion yuan, up 38.49% year-on-year; public finance budget revenue was 2.275 billion yuan, up 20.67% year-on-year; fixed asset investment was 6.20 billion yuan, up 5.33% year-on-year, and the main economic indicators were growing.
On the other hand, according to the data of the General Administration of Customs, China's textile exports in the first seven months of 2017 totaled 149.532 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.15%. Among them, textile exports were 62.452 billion US dollars, up 3.20% year-on-year, and clothing and accessories exports were 87.08 billion US dollars, up 1.40% year-on-year. Exports for five consecutive months showed a positive trend of steadily warming up. It is a foregone conclusion that the export of textiles and garments has been shrinking for two consecutive years.
From the monthly data, the export volume of textiles and apparel in July was 25.487 billion US dollars, up 4.65% from the previous month, and the monthly export volume was once again the highest level since this year. Among them, textile exports were 9.338 billion US dollars, down 3.34% from the previous month; while clothing and accessories exports were 16.148 billion US dollars, up 9.906% from the previous month.
From these two data, the industry boom cycle begins to enter a good phase.
2. The industry chain has a problem of waiting for goods to rise.
Since the beginning of this year, all over the country have encountered an unprecedented shutdown due to environmental protection. In the first half of the year, due to the excessive concentration of Taihu Lake, printing and dyeing enterprises have become switch factories. Since the second half of the year, the water-jet loom has been blown up in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. Eliminating the wave of rectification, the statistics of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces eliminated over 150,000 sets of water jet looms within three years, and the closure of printing and dyeing enterprises caused by environmental protection inspectors in Zhejiang Province. A series of factors made the market worry about the supply of the latter market. Even in the industry, there is a saying that it is difficult to find a later one.
Orders are too late to make, delivery delays are gradually fermenting in the market. In response to this phenomenon, according to market research, many industry people have also made plans for the tight supply and demand situation in the later market, placing orders in advance and starting from the weaving end. It is more common in the market.
Editor in charge: Xu Yuehua
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