Judging from the latest information reflected in the Canton Fair, China's current export situation is not as bad as some people. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch China economist Lu Ting recently issued a report that according to the export orders of the Canton Fair in the fall of the 110th, China Exports are gradually slowing down, not downturn.
The Canton Fair is held once each spring and autumn. The official data of the Canton Fair show that the turnover of the 110th Canton Fair on November 4, 2011 was US$ 37.9 billion, which was the second highest in history. Among them, the export orders of the Autumn Canton Fair increased 8.8% over the same period of 2010. Lu Ting believes that this growth rate supports a soft landing of the Chinese economy without disintegration of the euro zone.
Lu Ting analysis said that although the growth rate of export orders at the Canton Fair in 2011 fell sharply from the 14.3% year-on-year growth rate in 2010, the growth rate of 8.8% was not very bad compared with the average growth rate of 10% in the past decade.
The turnover of the Canton Fair can predict the growth of Chinese exports in the next two quarters. Lu Ting said that from the perspective of the export orders of the Canton Fair in autumn, China’s export growth rate is expected to increase by 13.5% and 10% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2011 and 2012.
From the October data, the global leading indicators of Goldman Sachs show that the external demand growth in October further decelerated, which will bring continuous downward pressure on China's export growth.
According to the Caixin survey, the average of 17 institutions’ economists and researchers’ forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of exports in October was 15.9%, which was 1.2 percentage points lower than that in September. The year-on-year forecast for import growth was 21.3%, up 0.4% from September. The trade surplus forecast averaged 24.56 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 10 billion U.S. dollars from September.
Compared with the Spring Canton Fair, the export orders of the Canton Fair in the autumn of 2011 increased by 3%. The decline in export orders in the United States and Europe was offset by growth in Japan and emerging markets.
Compared with the spring of 2011, export orders from the United States and Europe fell by 24% and 19%, respectively, while Japan’s export demand increased by 28% due to an increase in demand after the earthquake. In emerging markets, export orders from Brazil, India, and Russia increased by 9% compared to the spring, and orders from other emerging markets increased by 39% year-on-year.
Due to uncertainties in economic growth, raw materials, and exchange rates, the autumn fair is still dominated by export orders in the short-to-medium term. Orders less than 6 months accounted for 88% of all orders, almost equal to the 90% level in the spring Canton Fair.
From the data of China's textile and clothing exports in 2011, it can be seen that in 2011, China's garment exports still maintained a double-digit increase year-on-year.
In October 2011, China’s clothing and clothing accessories totaled US$127.433 billion, up by 21.37% year-on-year. Among them, the total exports of woven garments and accessories were US$52.702 billion, an increase of 19.19% year-on-year; the cumulative export of knitted garments and accessories was US$66.458 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.15%. The United States is still the first export destination country. By October 2011, China’s total clothing exports to the United States was 23.771 billion, an increase of 29% year-on-year (above).
The Canton Fair is held once each spring and autumn. The official data of the Canton Fair show that the turnover of the 110th Canton Fair on November 4, 2011 was US$ 37.9 billion, which was the second highest in history. Among them, the export orders of the Autumn Canton Fair increased 8.8% over the same period of 2010. Lu Ting believes that this growth rate supports a soft landing of the Chinese economy without disintegration of the euro zone.
Lu Ting analysis said that although the growth rate of export orders at the Canton Fair in 2011 fell sharply from the 14.3% year-on-year growth rate in 2010, the growth rate of 8.8% was not very bad compared with the average growth rate of 10% in the past decade.
The turnover of the Canton Fair can predict the growth of Chinese exports in the next two quarters. Lu Ting said that from the perspective of the export orders of the Canton Fair in autumn, China’s export growth rate is expected to increase by 13.5% and 10% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2011 and 2012.
From the October data, the global leading indicators of Goldman Sachs show that the external demand growth in October further decelerated, which will bring continuous downward pressure on China's export growth.
According to the Caixin survey, the average of 17 institutions’ economists and researchers’ forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of exports in October was 15.9%, which was 1.2 percentage points lower than that in September. The year-on-year forecast for import growth was 21.3%, up 0.4% from September. The trade surplus forecast averaged 24.56 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 10 billion U.S. dollars from September.
Compared with the Spring Canton Fair, the export orders of the Canton Fair in the autumn of 2011 increased by 3%. The decline in export orders in the United States and Europe was offset by growth in Japan and emerging markets.
Compared with the spring of 2011, export orders from the United States and Europe fell by 24% and 19%, respectively, while Japan’s export demand increased by 28% due to an increase in demand after the earthquake. In emerging markets, export orders from Brazil, India, and Russia increased by 9% compared to the spring, and orders from other emerging markets increased by 39% year-on-year.
Due to uncertainties in economic growth, raw materials, and exchange rates, the autumn fair is still dominated by export orders in the short-to-medium term. Orders less than 6 months accounted for 88% of all orders, almost equal to the 90% level in the spring Canton Fair.
From the data of China's textile and clothing exports in 2011, it can be seen that in 2011, China's garment exports still maintained a double-digit increase year-on-year.
In October 2011, China’s clothing and clothing accessories totaled US$127.433 billion, up by 21.37% year-on-year. Among them, the total exports of woven garments and accessories were US$52.702 billion, an increase of 19.19% year-on-year; the cumulative export of knitted garments and accessories was US$66.458 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.15%. The United States is still the first export destination country. By October 2011, China’s total clothing exports to the United States was 23.771 billion, an increase of 29% year-on-year (above).
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