On March 27th, the central bank’s reverse repurchase continued to stop, and the open market operation ushered in a net return for the sixth consecutive day. Market participants pointed out that the central bank's net return indicates that short-term fiscal expenditures are strong, and the total liquidity problem is not big, but it inevitably aggravates the market's disagreement on monetary policy. The pre-season capital fabrics are slightly tightened, and the central bank may restart the open market operation. .
Net withdrawal for 6 consecutive days
On the morning of the 27th, the central bank’s open market operations continued to be suspended, and the 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase maturity achieved a net return. It was the sixth consecutive day since the 20th of this month. According to statistics, in the past 6 days, the central bank has accumulated a total of 10 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations. In the same period, the reverse repurchase expired at 410 billion yuan, with a net return of 400 billion yuan. The central bank’s anti-purchase maturity is characterized by a “sharp peak†of liquidity.
Looking further, the recent "cut" of the central bank may be the "peak" of fiscal expenditure. Since the beginning of this week, the central bank's trading announcement has always said that considering that the fiscal expenditure at the end of the month can absorb the influence of the central bank's reverse repurchase due and other factors, in order to maintain a reasonable and stable liquidity of the banking system, no open market operations will be carried out.
According to industry insiders, since 2017, the impact of foreign exchange factors on liquidity has been alleviated, and fiscal expenditure disturbances have increased. The fiscal tax collection in the middle of the month is likely to cause liquidity tightening. The central bank’s open market operations are mainly based on net investment. Expenditure formed a liquidity supply, and the central bank turned to returning to the neutral level through reverse repurchase maturity. Compared with the normal month, the fiscal expenditure at the end of the quarter tends to be large, and the liquidity generated is considerable.
In the capital market, although the market is close to the end of the season, the short-term liquidity is still relatively abundant. Under the condition of stable funds, the central bank can also understand the net withdrawal. However, the continuous central bank's net withdrawal has inevitably exacerbated the market's divergence of views on monetary policy, and with the increase in the assessment factors at the end of the quarter, the funds face a certain tightening pressure in the short term.
On the 27th, the interbank money market interest rate rose mostly. In the bond pledged repo transaction, the overnight interest rate rose nearly 6BP to 2.59%. The representative 7-day variety DR007 rose nearly 3BP to 2.86%, and the 14-day variety also rose 3BP. 4.46%, 21-day varieties rose 33BP to 4.52%. Traders said that the current capital market still maintains a balanced supply and demand situation, and the supply of funds is not sufficient across the month, and the supply and demand of inter-season varieties is slightly tight.
Cross-season pressure has emerged
Analysts said that there are only three working days left in the first quarter. The cross-season pressure may continue to show up. There is still some upside for the 7-day and overnight fund prices, but the liquidity is not expected to be too tight. The central bank may restart the open market operation and stabilize the market. fluctuation.
Since the beginning of this week, the market funds have shown some signs of tightening. Although the supply and demand of funds are generally balanced, the demand for funds in the interseason is strong, and the supply is relatively small. The cross-sea pressure has already appeared.
Money market interest rates have also gradually deviated from the previous lows. The DR007 has been up about 15BP from 2.7% last Friday, and the full-caliber R007 has gone up from 3% to 3.58%, up nearly 60BP. The spread between R007 and DR007 has widened again, indicating that the financing of non-bank institutions has increased at the end of the quarter, and liquidity has re-stratified.
Looking back, the pressure at the end of the quarter will continue to show. Under the liquidity stratification pattern, the financing pressure faced by non-bank institutions tends to push the interest rate level of the money market from the margin.
But analysts believe that the possibility of a sharp tightening of liquidity at the end of the quarter is still small. The reason is that the current total liquidity is still guaranteed, and the central bank may restart the reverse repurchase operation to stabilize the currency market fluctuations. At present, the absolute level of money market interest rates is still not high, and the funds are not very tight.
According to industry insiders, compared with the end of the half year and the end of the year, the assessment pressure at the end of the first quarter is relatively limited, and the problem of cross-season funding is not big. After the inter-season, April and May will continue to greet the big tax month. How the central bank will operate and how the funds will go may be a good time to observe the monetary policy orientation.
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