The rubber will fall back and finishing, the pattern will be stronger and will also be attacked.
[Fundamental] From January 1, 2018, the vehicle purchase tax will be restored from the current 7.5% to 10%. In general, the purchase tax of 7.5% of passenger cars increased by 3%, and the purchase tax of 10% of passenger cars increased by 0%. The impact of the purchase tax has begun to gradually weaken, so the impact on the base of this year has weakened. The China Automobile Association released the automobile production and sales data for January 2018. The overall production and sales summary: January production of 2.688 million vehicles, down 11.6% from the previous month, up 13.6% year-on-year; sales of 2.809 million units, down 8.2% from the previous month and up 11.5% from the same period last year. According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, this year's auto market will resume its potential growth rate. In 18 years, the overall sales of automobiles will maintain a steady growth of 5-7%. In terms of inventory of tire factories, the overall inventory of this month showed an upward trend, but the increase rate was significantly lower than that of the previous year. The inventory pressure of the first-level agents is relatively large, and many of the inventory exceeds the sales volume of 2 months. Not three packs of tire dealers inventory pressure is not large, heavy truck manufacturers inventory from the normal accumulation of inventory. The average operating rate of all-steel tires in the national tire enterprises this month was 43.48%, down 21.59 percentage points from the previous month. The average monthly operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers was 35.35%, down 34.21% from the previous month. The Spring Festival has become the main external factor affecting the start of construction, and the all-steel tires started to meet the lowest level of construction in the whole year. The inventory data of the bonded area has not been announced. On January 17, the natural rubber stock of Qingdao Bonded Area was 13.70 million tons. As of February 23, Hujiao's inventory was 435,000 tons, and the registered warehouse receipts were 390,400 tons. The futures giant inventory and futures main contracts were related to the high premium of spot prices. In general, if the futures premium is not eliminated, it will be difficult to achieve exchange stocks.
[Trends forecast] Rubber oscillated downward yesterday. On the plate, rubber fell back this week. The current daily line is down and weak in the short term. The sea believes that the rubber festival will rise in stages and the support below will be strong. In the near future, the heavy-duty trials will be attacked. After the festival, the fundamentals will go well. It is predicted that the rubber is still strong, and the short-term adjustment will continue to rise, and the operation is recommended to stabilize. Enter more than one
Double-focus continuous ups and downs, and then call back after attack
[Fundamental] At present, the trend of coking coal is relatively stable, and some areas have risen slightly. Most of the large mines have resumed production. The resources of 1/3 coking coal (S1.0) in some mines in Linyi area are tight, and they increase by 30 yuan/ton after the holiday, but the coal price in most areas is stable. Among them, the low-sulfur coal market is better and the demand is tight, which is related to the recent extension of production time in heavy industrial cities such as Handan and Tangshan. According to CCTD China Coal Market Network data, the latest CCTD Tangshan main coking coal closed at 1,450 yuan / ton, the price index remained stable for 7 consecutive weeks, compared with the price of 50 yuan / ton at the end of December last year; CCTD Tangshan fat coal closed at 1525 Yuan/ton, which remained stable for 7 consecutive weeks, rose by RMB 50/ton from the end of December last year. March is the beginning of a steel mill's resumption of production, and increased demand may lead to upward momentum in coking coal. In addition, the three-month long association price has been stabilized and the price adjustment window will be ushered in. The gap between the long exchange price and the market is 150-200 yuan/ton, and the quarterly price of the long association is raised. It is expected to gain the consensus of coal enterprises. Coupled with the recent increase in coke prices from the bottom of 100 yuan / ton, will support the coking coal long association price. It is worth noting that due to the extension of production time in some enterprises in some areas of Hebei, the demand for coke, coking coal and iron ore will be suppressed, and it may be difficult to reproduce the glory of previous years. In terms of data, on the 1st, the State Council announced the implementation of the 2017 “Government Work Report†quantitative indicators task. In terms of capacity, the country reduced the steel production capacity by more than 50 million tons, and accumulated over 250 million tons of excess coal production capacity. Target task. In January, the national railway coal shipment volume was 210 million tons, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year. In terms of price, Shanxi mainstream first-class report 1900-1950, quasi-first-class report 1850-1900, secondary report 1800-1850, all factory acceptance tax-included price.
[Trends forecast] Coking coal coke fell yesterday. On the whole, the double-focus fell this week. At present, many of the averages are rising online. The daily line has fallen back and formed a resistance level. There is still a large space above the current position of the double-focus. The sea thinks that the double-focus is in the early stage. The increase is large, and the upward pressure is facing a lot of pressure. On the fundamental side, the current bearish situation is not dominant. After the staged callback is predicted, the market will once again rise, and the operation suggests that the key layout will be more stable.
The pattern of soybean meal is strong, and it will continue to attack after adjustment.
[Fundamentals] News: On February 26, data released by the Canadian Grain Commission showed that Canadian rapeseed exports fell to their lowest level since September 2017 as of February 18, 2018. For the week ending February 18, Canadian canola exports were only 129,000 tons, compared with a five-week average of 194,800 tons. So far this year, the total export of rapeseed was 5.908 million tons, compared with 5.922 million tons in the same period last year. With the help of the drought in Argentina, the US soybeans performed well, which indirectly boosted the trend of domestic oils and fats. However, the fundamentals of the domestic vegetable market have not improved significantly. The supply of rapeseed raw materials is relatively loose. With the start of the rapeseed processing plant after the holiday, the passive supply of rapeseed will increase, and the demand for rapeseed remains. In the off-season, although prices continue to rise, it is expected to be difficult to increase. Vegetable oil is currently facing additional supply pressure from the National Reserve auction, and will enter the seasonal off-season of oil after spring, and the pressure on the other two major oils is still higher than the same period of the previous year, so the supply pressure of the oil disk is still relatively large. Affected by the La Niña phenomenon, this year's soybean producing areas in Argentina have experienced a rare drought. Most of the soybean producing areas have less than half of last year's rainfall, and soybean planting area has declined for the third consecutive year. This year's reduction of soybean production in Argentina is a foregone conclusion. The variable is only a matter of magnitude. As the drought continues to deepen, market institutions continue to significantly reduce Argentina's soybean production. The Argentine Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange last week estimated that Argentina's soybeans were only 44 million tons this year, which is 13.5 million tons lower than the actual production of the previous year. many. The weather forecast shows that there is only sporadic rainfall in the past week, which is not enough to alleviate the drought. Argentina's soybean production is still likely to be lowered, and some institutions will reduce the expected figure to 42 million tons or even 40 million tons.
[Trends forecast] Beans and leeks swayed yesterday. On the whole, after the two rushed high, this week's small volatility, the current two long bulls attack, the average moving average as a whole, the pattern is strong, the recent continued rise, the current upward pressure is relatively large, need short-term adjustment to run, consolidate the current position, the current The upper space is larger, the two fundamentals are biased, the price support is stable and strong, and the forecast is continued after the short-term sideways.
Pp, L, pta, asphalt and methanol are not enough to attack, and the low position will continue
[Fundamental] Supply and demand side: Domestic methanol factories in the Mainland still have pressure on discharge, the overall market mentality is weak, the traditional downstream gradually picks up, and the overall demand is relatively weak. The domestic methanol unit installation load was 69.76%, down 1.48% from the previous month; the northwest region started at 80.55%, down 0.30% from the previous month. The average operating rate of domestic coal (methanol) olefin plants was 78.99%, up 7.36% from the pre-holiday. In the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang and South China), methanol stocks increased to 679,500 tons, and the overall tradable supply of methanol in the coastal areas increased to 16.2 tons. In general, the progress of the methanol May contract will also maintain the bias operation, the main pressure comes from the expected resumption of production of the gas head unit after the end of the heating season and the steady increase of the tradable supply. However, the current price level continues to decline, because the short-selling sentiment has actually been released before and after the Spring Festival, and from the latest data, the downstream olefin load has increased, and some foreign installations have maintenance plans in the second quarter. Therefore, from a comprehensive perspective, as time goes by, the market supply and demand pattern will gradually stabilize, and the possibility of a lateral shock in the May contract during the month change is too large. Inventories in Hong Kong rose by 77,000 tons to 725,000 tons in February. The increase in imports to Hong Kong and the take-out of methanol after parking maintenance in the first half of Xingxing led to an increase in inventories. The overall tradable supply of methanol in the coastal areas increased to around 183,000 tons. From the balance sheet, the accumulated warehouses in January-February were larger, and the supply and demand in March were tightened in March, but they were still in the state of accumulated storage.
[Trends forecast] pp, L, pta, asphalt and methanol fell back on Wednesday. On the whole, the chemical industry continued to fluctuate at a low level after the bottom, and it rose slightly yesterday. The market broke through the daily line. The current multiple moving averages are still down. Weak, the fundamentals continue to be weak after the holiday, there is no sign of rebound and rebound, the lack of fundamental support for the upside, the current bottom support is strong, not easy to fall, predicting that the low shock market will continue, the operation is rallying short
Thread hot-rolled iron ore continuous callback, after stabilization, focus on follow-up
[Fundamental] Tangshan City continued to implement peak-to-peak production for a total of 244 days from March 16, 2018 to November 14, 2018, affecting a production capacity of 9.875 million tons. Handan City announced that from February 26 to March 31, the capacity of 18 steel enterprises in the city will be strictly limited to 50%; from April 1 to September 30, the iron and steel enterprises with one of the five major problems will be limited to 20%. % of the program. Behind the extension of production restrictions, the Chinese government attaches great importance to environmental protection. In 2017, among the 74 cities in the country, the top 10 cities in terms of air quality were Shijiazhuang, Handan, Xingtai, Baoding, Tangshan, Taiyuan, Xi'an, Hengshui, Zhengzhou and Jinan. Tangshan and Yishan belonged to the city with the air quality countdown in 2017. This has allowed the local government to extend the production time of highly polluting industries. In terms of port inventory, the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports nationwide was 15,879, a decrease of 77 from last Friday and an increase of 2,822 from the same period of last year. The average daily port of port was 264.01, and last Friday was 289.07 (unit: 10,000 tons). The port of East China was affected by heavy fog and windy weather, and the volume of port-opening decreased. However, the inventory of ports in North China increased slightly and there were still more ships in the later period. Among them, Caofeidian and Jingtang expected 17 ships to arrive in Hong Kong, of which PB powder and super special mixed powder were mostly. The overall inventory pressure can be seen; the South Port is due to the decline in arrival, which makes the inventory decline more obvious. At present, the downstream construction of finished steel products has been limited, but some major cities have already released red-headed documents for spring construction. For example, Tianjin Construction Network has issued a notice called “The Municipal Construction Committee's Notice on Doing a Complete Work of Spring Construction in 2018â€. The start of construction will continue to increase. On the 6th, the national scrap continued to operate strongly, mainly in the south. In the long-awaited wait, the price increase of Shagang, the leading factory in East China, has finally landed, and the scrap price has been raised by 150. After the increase, the scrap price is not included in the tax price of 2264-2335. Driven by the rest of the South, a wave of upswings, some sensitive markets and terminals followed up.
[Trends forecast] Threaded hot coils and iron ore were simultaneously adjusted back on Wednesday. Overall, the thread hot-rolled iron ore was rushed down after the previous high, and the current daily line was worn down. The market was broken and the signs of weakening were obvious. The sea believes that the current overall support of the black system is strong, and the fundamentals are not dominated by the negatives. This wave will not last long. It is predicted that the market will continue to attack after the short-term adjustment. The internal group has been focused on the layout. single
Copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum market differentiation, there will be a major market in the near future
[Fundamental] In terms of stainless steel, it still maintains growth but the growth rate is gradually slowing down. Global stainless steel production will increase to 49 million tons in 2018, with a growth rate of about 3.3%, and the growth rate will slow down slightly. The pressure on stainless steel prices is mainly due to the large-scale production of low-cost stainless steel plants in Indonesia. At the same time, Indonesian stainless steel is generally cheaper than the cost of domestic stainless steel 800-1000 yuan / ton. Once a large amount of stainless steel is returned to China, it will put pressure on the domestic stainless steel industry, suppressing the profit and price of the stainless steel industry chain, thus dragging down the nickel price. New growth point of nickel demand New energy battery is expected to maintain a high growth rate of more than 10% per year. From a global perspective, countries will gradually phase out fuel vehicles and replace them with cleaner electric or hybrid vehicles. China plans to produce and sell more than 1 million vehicles in 2018 and 2 million in 2020, and still maintain a high growth rate. In the past two years, ternary batteries have gradually become the mainstream of new energy vehicles on the market, and the demand for nickel sulfate, an important component of ternary batteries, has further increased. Since the main products of nickel sulphide ore are electrolytic nickel and nickel salts (including nickel sulphate), increasing the production of nickel sulphate will cause the production share of electrolytic nickel to be squeezed, and the supply of electrolytic nickel for our trading target is expected to be further reduced. At the current low level of exchange stocks, the overall nickel price is easy to rise and fall. From the perspective of inventory, we can see that the amount of nickel inventories in Shanghai has been falling in 2017, from nearly 90,000 tons at the beginning of the year to around 30,000 tons at the end of the year. A similar situation occurred in the LME's nickel sheet inventory. LME nickel sheet stocks, especially in Asia, fell rapidly. In 2017, LME nickel sheet stocks fell by nearly 50% year-on-year, currently only about 73,000 tons. As the output of electrolytic nickel is expected to decline year-on-year in 2018, the market gap in electrolytic nickel will lead to a gradual decline in the global inventory of electrolytic nickel.
[Trends forecast] Copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum tried to stabilize the attack on Tuesday, and the market fell back. It fell again yesterday. On the whole, copper, zinc and nickel are currently at the bottom of the upside range, the bearishness is not dominant, and the bottom support is relatively strong and not easy to fall. After the zinc opened lower on Tuesday, it fell back yesterday. In the short-term, the aluminum continued to be at a low level. The current position is repeatedly run-in, the chance of breaking is not big, and the low market will continue. The current overall support of copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum is strong. The sea predicts that there will be a sharp rise in the number of individual varieties in the near future. The internal group has begun to enter the market.
Gold and silver will fall back and the precious metal will continue
[Fundamental] Gold was stable in the early days of the day. The European market sent a big news to the North Korean side. North Korea expressed its willingness to hold talks with the United States on the issue of denuclearization, causing a major shock in the market: the US dollar index fell nearly 20% in the short-term. After the point, the number continued to fall, and most of the major non-US currencies and spot gold and silver rose strongly. At the close, gold futures prices rose 1.12% to $1335.7 per ounce; silver futures prices rose 2.07% to $16.78 per ounce. Platts' report released on Tuesday showed that OPEC oil production fell by 70,000 barrels per day to 32.39 million barrels per day in February, partly due to the heavy losses in Venezuela's oil industry. On the other hand, EIA raised its forecast for US crude oil production this year and next in its monthly report. This year's production is expected to increase by 1% to 10.7 million barrels per day, and next year it is expected to increase by 0.8% to 11.27 million barrels per day. In the early morning of the US, the API crude oil inventories increased by 5.661 million barrels in the week to March 2, which is expected to increase by 3 million barrels; refined oil inventories and Cushing stocks increased by 1.487 million barrels and 790,000 barrels respectively; gasoline stocks were unexpected. A decrease of 4.536 million barrels is expected to be reduced by 1.8 million barrels. After the report was released, the US and the two oils fell short-term. For the EIA crude oil inventory report released at 23:30 tonight, the market is expected to increase by 3 million barrels. Crude oil inventories tend to rise before refineries' seasonal shutdowns because they have reduced demand for crude oil. The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in December 2015. As of the beginning of 2018, the rate hike has been raised five times, and the federal funds rate has risen to 1.5%. In October 2017, the debt reduction operation was started, and the bonds that were reinvested at the end of each month were closed. The scale will reach $50 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018. The European Central Bank's monthly bond purchases fell from the previous 80 billion euros to 60 billion euros in 2017. It has shrunk to 30 billion euros since January 2018 and is expected to be reduced to zero in September. The Bank of England has also raised interest rates once again. As inflation is above its target, there is a possibility of another rate hike in 2018.
[Trends forecast] Gold and silver fell back on the upside, and closed at Yangyang. The precious metals fluctuated in the near-term low. After the upswing yesterday, they encountered resistance and fell back. Overall, the precious metals have recently lowered their averages, and there are signs of recovery in the near-term on the daily line. Some breakthroughs, the sea believes that the overall pattern of precious metals is empty, and the recent heavy volume, the current position still needs to stabilize and stabilize, predicting that the short-term continues to fluctuate weakly, and the operation is on the high position.
The thermal coal will be bottomed out and the current position will fall back.
[Fundamental] The government work report proposes the goal of “de-capacity†in 2018: to reduce the steel production capacity by about 30 million tons, withdraw the coal production capacity by about 150 million tons, and eliminate the coal-fired power units of less than 300,000 kilowatts that are not up to standard. In this regard, CICC believes that the scale of coal de-capacity is in line with expectations. In 2016/2017, it completed 290 million tons/150 million tons respectively, and accumulated more than 440 million tons. In 2018, it plans to continue to withdraw 150 million tons, which is the same as the 2017 target and is in line with market expectations. The situation of tight supply and demand of high-quality main coking coal is difficult to alleviate, and prices are easy to rise and fall. First, the import volume of Mongolian coking coal has begun to recover recently. According to the energy information, with the end of the holiday, the customs clearance of the Mongolian port has recovered better, with a coal intake of 57,000 tons per day, and the recovery to normal customs clearance in the short-term or short-term. . Second, the situation of railway transportation capacity has eased, and the support for coal prices has weakened. Third, the downstream steel inventories continued to climb. If the subsequent demand is not up to expectations, the fall in steel prices will suppress the price of coking coal. Fourth, the price of thermal coal fell rapidly, and the relationship between supply and demand improved significantly. Some cross-border coals will turn to coking coal. After the year, the pace of returning to the pit market gradually accelerated. Especially after the 15th of the first month, the output of thermal coal enterprises increased significantly. At the same time, the demand surface weakened, and the market began to make high losses. As the current thermal coal price is still at a high level, seasonal support has faded, and there is still room for decline in the thermal coal market in the short term, with a drop of 20-30 yuan/ton.
[Trends forecast] The thermal coal continued to test on Wednesday, and the thermal coal has been continuously adjusted in the near future, which is in line with the judgment of the sea. On the whole, the current multiple moving averages are down, and the market is weak. The short-term important support can focus on the 610 line. The sea believes that after the thermal coal festival, all the way down, the current space below is large, the upside support is insufficient, the recent market rallies fall, predicting that the current position can not stabilize, continue to explore today
The glass will attack and fall back, and the turbulent pattern will continue.
[Fundamental] In the spot market, last week, the average price of 5mm float glass in major cities nationwide was about 1615 yuan / ton, slightly down during the week; the key factory warehouse in Shahe area quoted 1426 yuan / ton; Shahe Daguangming offer 1426 yuan / Tonne; East China key manufacturers offer 1733.6 yuan / ton, Wuhan major manufacturers offer 1716 yuan / ton, the price as a whole climbed the previous week. According to statistics, as of the end of last week, the total number of float glass production lines in the country was 362, with no increase or decrease throughout the week; the total production capacity was 1.295 billion weight boxes, which was unchanged from the previous week; the number of production lines started 232, an increase of two on a week-on-week basis. The operating rate of the production line is 64.09%, an increase of 0.55% on a week-on-week basis; the national float glass production capacity is 150,610 tons per day. The production line has an inventory of 32.93 million weight boxes, an increase of 200,000 heavy boxes per week. In terms of inventory, the current stock of float glass production line is basically the same as that in the same period of the past 15 years, still lower than the same period of 16-17. Although the inventory increase during the Spring Festival holiday is obvious, the current inventory pressure is still not prominent. In addition, before the Spring Festival holiday this year, most manufacturers did not provide a large price concession policy to stimulate traders and downstream processing enterprises to dump large quantities of goods. It is expected that after the post-holiday traders and processing enterprises will resume work, they may take certain The replenishment operation will help speed up the production of the enterprise. Overall, although in the medium and long term, the follow-up glass demand side is almost indisputable, but the current weak demand situation is not obvious, manufacturers are still expecting the traditional sales season after the holiday, and there are also recent Raise the move to highlight the market atmosphere
[Trend forecast] The glass fell back last week, and the glass fell back this week after the previous period. It is currently in a wide range of fluctuations. There is space above it. The short-term important pressure is around 1515. Overall, the current lower moving average is bonded and supported. Strong, the Japanese line has recently fallen back down to form a resistance level. With the downstream demand side of the holiday, the glass price is supported, and the oscillating pattern will continue. The operation suggests that the key layout will be more stable.
(Editor: Wu Xiaolin HF106)
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